The 2025-26 US wheat balance sheet has tightened slightly from last month, amid reduced production, lower domestic use, and higher exports.
Meanwhile, the global wheat outlook has tightened as well.
The USDA’s monthly supply-demand update on Tuesday trimmed the US total wheat production estimate by 2 million bu from last month to 1.927 billion, based on a smaller harvested area, partly offset by a 0.1 bu/acre yield increase to 52.7. Output declines for Hard Red Spring and White wheat were partially countered by gains for Hard Red Winter, durum, and Soft Red Winter.
American winter wheat production for 2025 is now estimated at 1.36 billion bu, up 1% from the July forecast and from 2024. Durum output is forecast at 87.4 million bu, up 10% from July and 9% above last year, while other spring wheat output is down 4% from July to 484 million bu, 11% below last year.
US domestic wheat use was cut 5 million bu from last month to 1.154 billion bu, led by reduced food use based on the latest flour milling data. Exports rose 25 million bu from last month to 875 million, supported by a strong early pace of Hard Red Winter wheat sales.
US wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are forecast 21 million bu lower this month at 869 million. Going into today’s report, analysts were expecting a cut in US ending stocks, but a more modest one of around 8 million bu. Wheat futures were trading anywhere from about 1 to 10 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
Globally, estimated 2025-26 production is down 1.65 million tonnes this month to 806.9 million, driven by a 2-million tonne cut for China to 140 million on weaker yields, along with smaller crops in Brazil and Argentina. These declines were partially offset by a 1-million tonne increase for the EU to 138.25 million — its largest output since 2021-22 — thanks to months of favourable weather in countries such as Romania and Slovakia.
World consumption was lowered 1.1 million tonnes to 809.5 million, largely on reduced feed use in China, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Global trade edged 500,000 tonnes higher to 213.5 million, led by stronger US exports.
China’s imports, at 6 million tonnes, were steady from July and up from 4.17 million a year earlier.
Global wheat ending stocks fell 1.4 million tonnes to 260.08 million, the lowest since 2015-16.
The US season-average farm price for wheat was reduced 10 cents/bu this month to $5.30/bu, reflecting lower US corn prices and softer wheat price expectations.
